Data Highlights Deadly Threat Posed by the Islamic State Group in DRC 

7/11/2025 DRC (International Christian Concern) — Analysis by ACLED, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data group, indicates that the recent focus on the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group fighting in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has resulted in fewer resources being dedicated to combatting the Islamic State group in the country.

 

Islamic State Central Africa Province — better known as the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) — has taken advantage of the relative inattention to launch increased attacks on civilians, including a February operation in which it killed 70 Christians in a Lubero-area church.

 

The ADF is one of many African terrorist organizations aligned with the jihadist Islamic State movement. It stands out among the country’s 120 militant groups for its brutal tactics and explicit animosity toward Christianity.

 

According to ACLED, ADF attacks on civilians in the first quarter of 2025 resulted in 68% more fatalities compared to the previous quarter, making it the “second-deadliest quarter of civilian targeting by the ADF since ACLED began recording data on the group in 1997.” In total, ACLED recorded and verified at least 450 deaths among unarmed civilians in the first quarter of 2025 — a grim statistic that corresponds with a marked decrease in the number of battles the ADF has had to fight with regional security forces.

 

While still in the early stages of implementation, Rwanda and the DRC signed a peace deal last month in which Rwanda agreed to withdraw its forces from eastern DRC.

 

Under the agreement, the two countries also agreed to launch a joint security framework within 30 days. Other elements of the deal include provisions for economic cooperation and U.S. access to mineral rights in the DRC.

 

While the M23 militant group is known to operate under the auspices of the Rwandan government, it has previously stated that it does not consider itself bound by any deal signed by the Rwandan government.

 

Should the deal be fully implemented, the withdrawal of thousands of Rwandan troops, who have long provided substantial support to the M23, will certainly present difficulties for the M23. Still, the group has continued its territorial advances in the days since the deal was signed and continues to hold the territory it has already gained.

 

U.N. peacekeepers in the country are working to protect hundreds of thousands of displaced persons, but have experienced increasing difficulty in executing their mission because of rebel advances.

 

The U.N. mission has become increasingly unpopular with Congolese government leaders in recent years. In December 2023, the U.N. Security Council approved the withdrawal after Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi requested a fast-tracked drawdown several months earlier.

 

The U.N. mission, known as MONUSCO, began withdrawing from the country in February 2024. MONUSCO has been operating in the country for more than 13 years and, before the drawdown, had nearly 18,000 personnel, including about 14,000 armed troops. Recent terrorist victories seem to be partially a result of the power vacuum left by the forced U.N. withdrawal.

Should the recent deal reduce the M23’s effectiveness, regional security forces may be able to devote more attention to the ADF. In the meantime, however, the ADF seems poised to continue its radical Islamist campaign against the DRC’s Christian-majority population.